Thermal Refugia within Temperate Habitats: Modelling Microclimate Landscapes to Predict Bird Distribution Responses

Abstract

Temperate ecosystems are undergoing accelerated warming and increasingly frequent thermal extremes, yet the vulnerability of avian species within these landscapes is not determined solely by broad‑scale climate metrics. Rather, the microclimate the fine‑scale thermal environment experienced by individual birds in their habitat plays a critical role in mediating exposure, behaviour, and ultimately distributional responses. This paper presents a framework for modelling microclimate landscapes in temperate habitats and applying these models to predict bird distribution responses under climate change. We synthesise empirical evidence linking microclimate heterogeneity and avian population trends, describe methodological approaches for deriving fine‑scale thermal layers, and implement a conceptual modelling workflow that integrates microclimate availability, thermal safety margins and habitat connectivity. We illustrate how this framework could be applied in temperate forest and shrub–grassland systems, and discuss how structural habitat features (e.g., canopy complexity, northerly aspects, dense shrubs) may act as thermal refugia. Our review of long‑term breeding bird data shows that sites with cooler sub‑canopy conditions in structurally complex forests exhibit less negative population trends, supporting the microclimate‑buffering hypothesis. We conclude that incorporating high‑resolution micro‑climate layers into species distribution modelling significantly refines predictions of vulnerability for temperate birds and highlight key management implications: preserving structural complexity, enhancing connectivity of cooler patches, and targeting micro‑climate refugia in conservation planning.